Scorecard
How our calls hold up
We check our own labels against what happened next, with the same data the site shows. Nothing is hand-picked: every country and every day counts.
110 days of history since Monday, 15 June 2026. Updated every week; this edition: Saturday, 3 October 2026. How the labels are set →
How long rising topics last
Most rising topics are short spikes: after 4 weeks, 10.3% are still in their country’s top 100, fewer than the 14.9% of all top topics.
Topics labelled rising in a country (not weekly or yearly repeats), checked in the same country later, next to every topic in that country’s top 100 the same day, everyday staples included.
| After | Rising topics still in the top 100 | Still rising | All top-100 topics still there |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 31.1% 113,484 of 364,968 | 13.4% | 37.1% |
| 4 weeks | 10.3% 30,468 of 295,723 | 1.7% | 14.9% |
| 12 weeks | 4.0% 4,360 of 108,801 | 2.1% | 7.1% |
By label, after 4 weeks
| Label | Rising topics | Still in the top 100 |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout | 30,141 | 16.9% |
| New | 68,031 | 6.8% |
| Rising | 193,906 | 10.5% |
| Back | 3,645 | 14.0% |
By kind of signal, after 4 weeks
| Signal | Rising topics | Still in the top 100 |
|---|---|---|
| Reading and searching | 232,725 | 7.6% |
| Charts (apps, songs, films, games) | 60,181 | 19.0% |
| Both | 2,817 | 44.7% |
By category, after 4 weeks
Categories with at least 500 rising topics.
| Category | Rising topics | Still in the top 100 | All topics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 88,832 | 9.0% | 9.2% |
| Movies & TV | 64,921 | 14.2% | 13.3% |
| Gaming | 36,453 | 19.8% | 28.5% |
| Music | 20,892 | 4.6% | 6.2% |
| Politics & world affairs | 18,467 | 7.2% | 13.7% |
| Travel & places | 10,160 | 3.8% | 24.6% |
| Business & economy | 7,235 | 6.4% | 15.9% |
| Celebrities & creators | 7,029 | 3.2% | 4.2% |
| Books, arts & history | 4,500 | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| Crime & justice | 3,077 | 3.7% | 5.1% |
| Society & beliefs | 2,251 | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| Tech & AI | 2,049 | 35.4% | 48.4% |
| Nature, climate & disasters | 1,101 | 6.1% | 8.2% |
| Fashion & beauty | 880 | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| Science & space | 593 | 2.7% | 4.3% |
Where it’s heading next
Each month the model is tested on the last fifth of its history: of the countries it would have named (a chance of at least 20%), how many picked the topic up within a week, next to the share of all candidate countries that did.
Not yet better than chance. In its latest test the model named no country with enough confidence, and its chances were no more accurate than the base rate. Pro shows its guesses as experimental until that changes.
| Model | Countries named | Picked it up | All candidates | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sept | 0 | – | – | -0.002 |
Skill compares the model’s chances with guessing from how often each country usually picks topics up: above 0 is better, 0 or below is no better.