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Medien
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Meinungen
Die Fragen, über die das Feld streitet, und jede Seite in den Worten derer, die sie vertreten.
Will AI mainly reduce workforces or create and reshape jobs?
Smaller workforces
AI-driven efficiency will mean fewer people doing current work and smaller corporate teams.
Gemessen
US adultsWill AI lead to more jobs, fewer jobs, or not make much difference in the US over the next 20 years?
Fewer jobs71 %
Will not make much difference10 %
More jobs5 %
Not sure14 %
It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company.
AI will change how work is done, while businesses that adopt it can grow, raise wages and create jobs.
Gemessen
AI experts living in the US (authors and presenters at 21 AI conferences, 2023-24)Will AI have a positive or negative impact on how people do their jobs over the next 20 years?
Very or somewhat positive73 %
I don’t expect unemployment to be noticeably higher a year from now—at least not because of AI
I think software engineering will still be an enormous career. I just think the software engineers won’t be spending multiple hours of their day in a text editor typing out syntax.
This is why I can simultaneously think that AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs over 1–5 years, while also thinking we may have AI that is more capable than everyone in only 1–2 years.
Companies should keep hiring at entry level and provide structured, domain-specific training and experience.
Gemessen
Gen Z and millennial adults in 44 countriesAI is leading their company to create new entry-level roles
Company creating new entry-level roles because of AI23 %
My forecast: entry-level UX hiring will become more apprenticeship-like. Companies will hire fewer “fresh generalists” and more trainees attached to specific domains: accessibility, content, design systems, research operations, or growth.
The companies three to five years from now that are going to be the most successful are those companies that doubled down on entry-level hiring in this environment
Which capabilities will matter more as work and tools change?
Deep expertise
Build on personal strengths and deep knowledge rather than chasing whatever topic is currently popular.
It is really incredibly hard to stand out if you are just listening to what is a hot topic and chasing the same shiny thing that literally everyone else is doing. And so I think it is to thine own self be true, right?
I think you always have to be curious. I think it could be really easy to rest on what you know or what you think you've known or what you've learned over the years.
Was veröffentlichte Umfragen zählten, als sie Menschen im und um das Feld fragten.
US adults ages 18-29Does the increased use of AI in daily life make you feel more concerned than excited, more excited than concerned, or equally both?
More concerned than excited55 %
More excited than concerned11 %
US adultsWill AI lead to more jobs, fewer jobs, or not make much difference in the US over the next 20 years?
Fewer jobs71 %
Will not make much difference10 %
More jobs5 %
Not sure14 %
US adults ages 18-29Think AI will lead to fewer jobs in the US over the next 20 years
Fewer jobs73 %
AI experts living in the US (authors and presenters at 21 AI conferences, 2023-24)Will AI have a positive or negative impact on how people do their jobs over the next 20 years?
Very or somewhat positive73 %
US adultsWill AI have a positive or negative impact on how people do their jobs over the next 20 years?
Very or somewhat positive23 %
Developers and technologists who answered the Stack Overflow Developer Survey (169 countries)How satisfied are you in your current professional role?
Happy at work22,2 %
Complacent at work45,1 %
Not happy at work32,6 %
Digital designers in North America and in EuropeBelieve the design job market has declined
North America63 %
Europe59 %
B2B and B2C marketers worldwideSee AI working in conjunction with marketers, assisting them with most of their job duties
AI works alongside marketers73,4 %
Marketing employees who use AI at work, at enterprise companiesBelieve their company would replace them with an AI agent tomorrow if it could
Would be replaced by an agent if the company could43 %
Tech workers who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow has working with AI shifted how you see yourself as a professional?
Amplified (I can do more, and better)49 %
Redefined27,4 %
Destabilized13,9 %
Diminished5 %
Unchanged3,2 %
Working tech professionals who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow burned out are you?
Moderately, very or completely burned out55,7 %
Very or completely burned out26,2 %
Tech workers who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyWhat worries you about AI's impact on your career?
Being expected to do more for the same pay51 %
Getting trapped in an unsustainable pace46 %
The quality of my work going down41 %
Losing my job to AI22 %
Working tech professionals who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow likely are you to recommend a career in your role to a friend starting out today?
Would steer a newcomer away53 %
US employees (Gallup Panel)How often do you use AI in your role at work?
Daily15 %
A few times a week or more30 %
A few times a year or more52 %
Managers worldwide (Gallup World Poll)Engaged at work
Engaged22 %
US employeesHow likely is it that your job will be eliminated in the next five years because of technological innovations such as automation or AI?
Very or somewhat likely: all US employees18 %
Very or somewhat likely: employees where AI has been implemented23 %
Leaders who use AI at work, in 10 countriesFeel safe suggesting new ways of working with AI
Feel safe suggesting AI-driven ways of working81 %
Employees who use AI at work, in 10 countriesFeel safe suggesting new ways of working with AI
Feel safe suggesting AI-driven ways of working67 %
Full-time knowledge workers who use AI at work, in 10 countriesShare who are Frontier Professionals (use agents for multi-step work, routinely redesign workflows, take part in shared AI practices)
Frontier Professionals16 %
Full-time knowledge workers who use AI at work, in 10 countriesWhich human skills become more important as AI takes on more work?
Quality control of AI output50 %
Critical thinking46 %
US workers (employed adults, part time or full time)How do you feel about the future use of AI in the workplace?
Worried52 %
Hopeful36 %
Overwhelmed33 %
Gen Z and millennial adults in 44 countriesAI is leading their company to create new entry-level roles
Company creating new entry-level roles because of AI23 %
Gen Z and millennial adults in 44 countriesTheir organisation is scaling back entry-level roles because of AI
Antworten der Leserschaft, keine repräsentative Stichprobe.
Karriere
Richtung
Forecasts point to leaner workforces and major changes in job skills, while some expect AI to create jobs and reshape work rather than eliminate it.
It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company.
Prognosen und Visionen, mit dem Datum, an dem sie gesagt wurden, und dem, an dem sie sich prüfen lassen.
Offen1–5 years (jobs); 1–2 years (capability)Prüfen am 31. Jan. 2031
This is why I can simultaneously think that AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs over 1–5 years, while also thinking we may have AI that is more capable than everyone in only 1–2 years.
Offenthree to five years from nowPrüfen am 28. Feb. 2031
The companies three to five years from now that are going to be the most successful are those companies that doubled down on entry-level hiring in this environment
Verbreitete Behauptungen und was die Quellen stattdessen zeigen.
Oft gesagt
AI's job impact is simply a choice between job losses and no change.
Was die Quellen zeigen
The forecasts also describe work changing, new jobs being created and skills shifting, alongside predictions of smaller workforces.
It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company.
The cited forecasts distinguish entry-level disruption from changes to software engineers' tasks and from employment growth at adopting businesses.
This is why I can simultaneously think that AI will disrupt 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs over 1–5 years, while also thinking we may have AI that is more capable than everyone in only 1–2 years.
Make experiential or immersive work part of students' education.
But it's really, really important for us to be intentional about providing those opportunities to students. In fact, more than half of our majors actually require experiential or immersive experiences as part of the graduation requirements.
Use a deliberately poor idea to make it easier for a team to test and improve ideas.
If I say, let's see how bad an idea we can make, I'll start. And I put a really horrible idea on the table, and I say, can you make an idea worse than that? Now we're all grinning, we're laughing.
Turn off the phone and reserve the day for focused work.
I come here in the, in the morning, I turn off my telephone. I'm not going to talk to anybody all day. I'm a friendly guy. Sometimes that very fact is hard.