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Transport & logistics
Media
Transport & logistics
Opinions
The questions the field argues about, and each side in the words of the people who hold it.
How soon will autonomous transport reach commercial operation at meaningful scale?
Near-term deployment
Fully commercial autonomous operations could begin before the end of the year, with unsupervised service in London forecast for early next year.
Fully commercial operations before New Year's Eve is what I'll put out there as a marker. That's where I think they're going.
London anytime soon for every company not named Waymo? No. And I will say by Q1 of next year, Waymo will be operating fully autonomous, unsupervised service in London while Uber races to play catch up with their partner.
Meaningful scale will take time; operating data systems and staff in each market may make expansion too costly.
If you have to have a data stack or a data center and folks on the ground in each of those places to man and process the data in each one, you may never get to any of those markets because of the cost.
The opportunity is to coordinate fleets, using more precise location to support denser flying and more deliveries.
And the most exciting thing about it in my mind is that location doesn't just become about like the one robot. It actually becomes about, like, how do you coordinate fleets?
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Transport & logistics
Direction
Forecasts point to autonomous transport moving toward commercial service, but meaningful scale remains a longer-term question shaped by operating costs and infrastructure.
Fully commercial operations before New Year's Eve is what I'll put out there as a marker. That's where I think they're going.
If you have to have a data stack or a data center and folks on the ground in each of those places to man and process the data in each one, you may never get to any of those markets because of the cost.
Forecasts and visions, with when they were said and when they can be checked.
But I also think the new metric, or if you want to say the updated amended end metric should be paid commercial unsupervised miles and then have a subset of that breaking down deadhead miles.
And the most exciting thing about it in my mind is that location doesn't just become about like the one robot. It actually becomes about, like, how do you coordinate fleets?
What practitioners ahead of the curve say they do now.
Secure an in-house source of materials to reduce exposure to supply disruptions.
I think it also de risks us from supply disruptions, being vertically, vertically integrated and having our own source of materials. I'd say it's more from a resilience standpoint, ensuring supply.