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Les questions dont le domaine débat, et chaque camp dans les mots de ceux qui le défendent.
Should AI agents and inference spread broadly, or wait on reliability and cost?
Expand agent use
Agent workflows could become widespread, and enterprise applications are forecast to use inference pervasively.
It's very possible that we take the 100 IQ agentic workflow that still kind of becomes almost ubiquitous within the next 12 to 18 months, and we find really cool ways to use it.
But if you just zoom out five to seven years, I think that quite a few, if not Most of the enterprise applications that we use and that exist today are going to be using inference in a pervasive way.
Broader use depends on task-specific reliability and lower inference costs; current costs remain too high for pervasive use.
The cost of inference has come down quite a bit in the last few years, but it's still an order of magnitude too expensive in my opinion for it to be used as pervasively as possible.
Will AI transform existing products, or require new customer experiences?
Build new experiences
Incremental improvements may not be enough; companies need to create winning experiences rather than simply add AI to existing ones.
But I also think that for existing companies who have successful customer experiences at scale, that if they think about AI as primarily just incrementally improving the experience experience, they will very likely not have the winning experiences three to five years from now.
I do think the consumer layer AI is going to be. People ask me all the time like what will get you really constructive on AI again? I said when we figure out that killer consumer application layer.
AI can begin by assisting or automating current work, and integrations can make existing professional platforms agent-native.
And we're going to keep on building more and more of those types of integrations to make this truly the first kind of agent native professional networking platform.
What starts as the use of AI to automate or assist the work you're doing today very quickly turns into a decision about whether this work even needs to be done, or an agent could do it better than a human.
Will AI mainly expand opportunity, or intensify work and career pressure?
More capability
Some tech workers report that AI amplifies or redefines their professional work.
Mesuré
Tech workers who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow has working with AI shifted how you see yourself as a professional?
Amplified (I can do more, and better)49 %
Redefined27,4 %
Destabilized13,9 %
Diminished5 %
Unchanged3,2 %
What starts as the use of AI to automate or assist the work you're doing today very quickly turns into a decision about whether this work even needs to be done, or an agent could do it better than a human.
Survey respondents report concerns about heavier workloads, unsustainable pace, and declining work quality.
Mesuré
Tech workers who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyWhat worries you about AI's impact on your career?
Being expected to do more for the same pay51 %
Getting trapped in an unsustainable pace46 %
The quality of my work going down41 %
Losing my job to AI22 %
What starts as the use of AI to automate or assist the work you're doing today very quickly turns into a decision about whether this work even needs to be done, or an agent could do it better than a human.
Ce qu’ont compté des enquêtes publiées en interrogeant les gens du domaine et de son entourage.
Tech workers who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow has working with AI shifted how you see yourself as a professional?
Amplified (I can do more, and better)49 %
Redefined27,4 %
Destabilized13,9 %
Diminished5 %
Unchanged3,2 %
Working tech professionals who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow burned out are you?
Moderately, very or completely burned out55,7 %
Very or completely burned out26,2 %
Tech workers who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyWhat worries you about AI's impact on your career?
Being expected to do more for the same pay51 %
Getting trapped in an unsustainable pace46 %
The quality of my work going down41 %
Losing my job to AI22 %
Working tech professionals who answered Lenny's Newsletter's annual surveyHow likely are you to recommend a career in your role to a friend starting out today?
Would steer a newcomer away53 %
US employees in technology, finance and professional services (Gallup Panel)Use AI daily in their role
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Tech
Direction
The forecasts point toward AI becoming embedded in enterprise software and agent workflows, while competition and cost remain constraints.
It's very possible that we take the 100 IQ agentic workflow that still kind of becomes almost ubiquitous within the next 12 to 18 months, and we find really cool ways to use it.
For anthropic to continue this growth into the future, they're going to need to continue to stay at the frontier, which that whatever they have in their pipeline needs to be better than whatever is in the pipeline at OpenAI, at SpaceX, at Google.
Prévisions et visions, avec la date où elles ont été dites et celle où l’on pourra les vérifier.
I do think the consumer layer AI is going to be. People ask me all the time like what will get you really constructive on AI again? I said when we figure out that killer consumer application layer.
But if you just zoom out five to seven years, I think that quite a few, if not Most of the enterprise applications that we use and that exist today are going to be using inference in a pervasive way.
What starts as the use of AI to automate or assist the work you're doing today very quickly turns into a decision about whether this work even needs to be done, or an agent could do it better than a human.
Des idées répandues, et ce que montrent les sources.
On dit souvent
AI growth means established products can win by adding AI incrementally.
Ce que montrent les sources
Andy Jassy argues that incremental improvements may not produce winning experiences, while other forecasts describe a new consumer application layer.
But I also think that for existing companies who have successful customer experiences at scale, that if they think about AI as primarily just incrementally improving the experience experience, they will very likely not have the winning experiences three to five years from now.
Sell an early service-shaped offer to test whether customers will pay.
You can sell something that's more service shaped early on. I've seen a bunch of startups do that where they sell, you know, okay, we're going to have an AI product manager who can do X, Y, Z kind of thing.