Will housing activity recover, or will high mortgage rates keep the market subdued?
Recovery if conditions ease
Activity could regain momentum if the energy shock fades, confidence returns and market rates fall.
And so I think at some point there is like the rates come down and meet that leveling off of all those prices converging. And my hope is that it's going to be early next year.
This suggests that activity should regain momentum in the quarters ahead providing the energy shock fades and confidence returns - especially if market interest rates fall back to pre-conflict levels.
Rates limit movement
Elevated or rapidly rising rates can restrain demand and leave sales and construction subdued.
One concern is that because rates are still elevated and you know, we're not building a lot of apartments or rental units that eventually rent inflation will take off again.
When rates get above 7%, especially when they move up fast, housing demand slows down noticeably.
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